Fear of a mega-quake

And how to handle it

Dear Readers, yesterday my wife and I bought a couple of two-liter bottles of mineral water. This is, so far, what we have done to get ready for the possible mega-quake the government has talked about last week. I’ve lived in Japan for the last 32 years, and this is the first time I’ve bought something (or done anything) with the Big One in mind. I know, I can be terribly lazy.

According to the Tokyo Disaster Preparedness website, we need to buy much much more to be ready for a big earthquake. If you click on Tokyo Stockpile Navi, they tell you exactly what you need to get. Personally, I find it a little exaggerated, but I might be wrong. For example, my family (four people including two sons in their early 20s) should get, among other things:

• Water (for drinking, cooking, etc.): 36 liters

• Retort cooked rice： 36 packs

• Retort-packed food： 12 packs

• Canned food： 12 cans

• Dietary supplements： 12 packs

• Vegetable juice： 12 packs

• Cheese & protein bars： 4 packs

• Powdered healthy drinks： 12 packs

• Set of seasonings： As needed

• Dried or instant noodles： 3 packs

• Pre-washed rice： 5 kg

• Drinks： 12 bottles

• Confectionery： 3 packs

• Canned food (fruit)： 3 cans

• Freeze-dried food： Appropriate quantity

• Dry food： Appropriate quantity

That’s for three days, after which we should be able to get help from the authorities. If you are curious, you can check out the complete list here.

The following is a piece I wrote a few years ago after I visited the Tokyo Rinkai Disaster Prevention Park.

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According to the government of Japan, the chances of a powerful earthquake striking Tokyo in the next 30 years is as high as 70%. Seismologists’ predictions are even grimmer, but dates aside, everybody agrees that it is a matter of “when,” not “if.” Considering that even moving to another place is not really an option, as nowhere in this country is completely safe, there are only two alternatives left: leaving Japan for good or getting ready as best as you can. Eager to learn as many survival tips as possible from an expert, I met Yamazaki Jun’ichi, who heads the Tokyo Rinkai Disaster Prevention Park’s control / administration center. The park is regularly visited by schools, regional offices and even families who want to learn more on how to handle a major disaster.

The control room

“Obviously there are things we can’t control,” Yamazaki says, “but we can certainly take a number of measures in order to be as safe as possible, and one of the main areas where we can actually do something is home safety.”

In order to explain what he means, Yamazaki takes me on a tour of the Center and shows me two identical rooms in a very different state. They are meant to show how a house looks before and after the occurrence of a massive earthquake. “In 1995, Kobe experienced a disastrous earthquake,” he says “and most of the 6,500 people who died on that occasion were crashed to death. Of course, many of them were killed by collapsed buildings or falling debris, but another major cause was falling and moving furniture. This is the one area where each of us can actually do something to prevent this sort of accidents.

For example, furniture should be fixed to the wall so it doesn’t fall on your head. Also, if you put tall furniture near a door and it topples over, chances are you will be trapped inside the room with no way to escape. Of course putting tall heavy furniture near your bed or hanging something above it is equally dangerous. The kitchen is a particularly dangerous place because there are a lot of dishes and glasses and even the fridge can turn into a deadly moving object.”

We walk through a life-size disaster zone diorama. A convenience store sports a strange sticker on the door. “It says that they provide help in case of a major disaster,” Yamazaki explains. “In big cities like Tokyo and Yokohama, particularly in their central districts, there is a big difference between daytime and nighttime population. This is because a lot of people regularly commute to work from the suburbs and other cities. However, refugee shelters in each district have been built with only the residents in mind. So the problem arises of how to deal with all those people who actually don’t live there. In such emergency situations we need the aid of other places and convenience stores, gas stations and sometimes even family restaurants have offered their help. Here you can find water, disaster-related information and can even use their restrooms.”

You can use a Nintendo DS console to check how much you know about the subject.

Next, we watch a video showing a simulation of a major earthquake in Tokyo. It is 6:00 p.m. and the blackout which soon follows plunges the whole city into darkness except for those areas where fires have broken out. All traffic grinds to a halt. Also, buildings and other infrastructures that are not quakes-proof get seriously damaged. “The problem with fires is that their sheer number makes fire-fighting extremely difficult,” Yamazaki points out. “Another problem is that many people’s first instinct is to head home. Unfortunately, this mass exodus causes a great deal of chaos including street congestion, which in turn makes the rescuers’ work more difficult. Therefore, ideally all these people who are stranded away from home should just stop where they are and head to the nearest evacuation site.

Things you can use if you have a badly injured arm.

“Another related problem is that even before beginning their long track home, people start making phone calls to check on their dear ones. Everybody does it at the same time, causing all cell phone communication to fail. However, if everybody just leaves a short message this problem is less likely to occur, therefore a message system has been devised which can be used both with a cell phone or a public telephone. For example, if you know a family member is home alone, your first reaction is to go home and check on his safety, but if they leave a message and let you know they are alright, you may take it easier.”

Yamazaki advises people to always carry an electric torch and a bottle of water with them. “As I said, a major quake is immediately followed by a massive blackout, so a torch can be very useful.

As for the water, one of the worst things that can happen besides being injured is finding yourself trapped in an elevator. Consider that in case of a major quake in Tokyo, the elevators in about 30,000 buildings are going to stop automatically for safety reasons. You will likely spend 2-3 days inside one of them, and having some water with you will greatly improve your chances of making it alive.”

Last, we climb of the roof of the building and enjoy a 360-degree view of Tokyo Bay. Indeed, this place – that in case of a major disaster turns into a rescue control center – was chosen because it is easily accessible from the air (by helicopter), from the sea and from the city center where the government offices are. “Visitors never fail to ask us two questions. Is this place safe from a tsunami? And what about liquefaction? Regarding a tsunami, Tokyo Bay is much shallower than the Pacific Ocean. According to past data, even in case a tsunami reaches Tokyo the sea level does not rise higher than 2.7 meters. However, we are about eight meters above sea level, so the place is reasonably safe. As for liquefaction, this is a man-made island and yes, liquefaction is going to happen. However, both the heliport and the control center are quake-absorbing structure built on strong foundations, so it can stand a quake as strong as magnitude 7.”

Yamazaki compares quake prevention to dental health. “Many people don’t see a dentist until their teeth really start to hurt, but at that point it may be too late,” he says, “and the doctor may have to pull your bad tooth. This can be compared to losing a family member in case of a disaster. The difference is, you can always replace a pulled tooth with a fake one, but you can never replace a dead person. That’s why prevention is so important.

“In any case, what everybody must understand is that an earthquake car strike anytime, day or night, and it is so sudden that we often don’t have the time to react in any way. Now, for example, all cell phones and smart phones in Japan are equipped with an earthquake alarm system that is supposed to alert you a few seconds before an earthquake strikes, but it is usually too late to do anything.

How much food you need to survive for three days.

The only way to raise your chances of survival is to think ahead and be prepared. When you think about it, people always get ready for a number of things, like studying hard before a test or training before a sport event. However, there are no drills to get people prepared to deal with a major disaster like a quake. So it’s up to you to think about your own safety.”